スウエーデンの面白いものたち


by nyfiken
カレンダー
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JAPAN- BUSINESS AFTER 11 MARCH

Retailing

Retailers are girding for a prolonged recovery in Japan following the country's recent natural disaster, which delivered a harsh blow to already uncertain shoppers there.

Adobe Warns of Japan Weakness Japanese consumers, known for their love of brands and labels, have long been the first target for many U.S. companies expanding into Asia. Tiffany & Co. has sold its wares there for nearly four decades. Coach Inc. entered Japan in 1988; Gap Inc. opened there in 1995.

Companies have since focused on faster-growing markets like China, as the Japanese market has matured. Still, Japan remains the biggest Asian presence for many brands, such as Polo Ralph Lauren Corp., which generates approximately 8% of its $5 billion in annual revenues there, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.

Many retail locations in Japan are much more productive than their U.S. counterparts, meaning the disruption is likely to have an outsized effect on profits. At Tiffany's Japan stores, which accounted for 18% of total revenue last year, sales per square foot were $3,500 in 2010—much higher the company average of about $2,600. The New York-based luxury jeweler has lowered its profit outlook by five cents for the current quarter to 57 cents a share.

Most U.S. retailers have concentrated Japanese operations in and around Tokyo, with only a handful of branches in the most affected areas of the country. Coach, which generated 18% of its total sales from Japan and has about 165 stores in the country, said locations representing less than 10% of its business there are in the affected region. Of Gap's 130-odd stores in Japan, only two are in the hardest-hit area.

The disruptions in Japan also will put a further drag on already sluggish sales of household products in developed countries. While consumer-product makers like Procter & Gamble Co., Colgate-Palmolive Co. and Kimberly-Clark Corp. garner just a fraction of their sales from Japan, the country's consumers are buyers of premium toothpastes, shampoos and cleaners, which can carry higher profit margins than products sold in fast-growing developing markets.

—Elizabeth Holmes

Chemicals

Japan's petrochemical makers sustained little permanent damage overall from Japan's natural disasters. JX Nippon Oil & Energy Corp., Mitsubishi Chemical Corp. and other manufacturers in the impact zone suspended operations to take stock of the situation and to cope with rolling blackouts caused by electricity shortages, which could continue to be a problem in coming months. But many plants are back online and slowly increasing production to make up for lost time.

The major exceptions are Maruzen Petrochemical Co. and Cosmo Oil Co., both of which have chemical refineries in Chiba that were damaged by fire and will most likely be down for extended periods of time.

Japan consumes much of its own output of basic petrochemicals like ethylene and polypropylene—building blocks for various kinds of plastics—and exports most of the rest to its Asian neighbors. Any decline in Japan's production of these commodity chemicals is unlikely to cause long-term shortages at home or in East Asia, a major market, because stocks are plentiful, chemical producers and brokers say.

More important in global trade are Japanese-made epoxy resins and other high-end plastics used in such products as electric motors, computer circuitry and automotive coatings. GM and other auto makers in the U.S. are already cutting production of some vehicles in the absence of some supplies from Japan. Computer makers also could start to feel a pinch.

Replacing homes and cars in the mostly rural areas devastated by the quake and tsunami will boost Japan's demand for petrochemicals ranging from butadiene, which is used in making molded plastic auto body components, to solvents and plastics used in the construction trades. But the rapid aging of Japan's population means that, despite any bump from the rebuilding effort, the company's chemical industry faces a shrinking domestic market.

—Ben Lefebvre

Power

The cracks exposed in the country's nuclear prowess could give fossil fuels a new luster, as prospects for an atomic renaissance fade.

The nuclear reactors knocked out by the quake account for 8% of Japan's electric capacity, and they won't come back for years. Natural gas will fill most of that gap, making Japan's consumption of the fuel grow by up to one third, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says.

View Full Image

ZUMAPRESS.com

Burnt vehicles that were swept together in the port of Hitachi on March 12.
Japan is already the largest importer of liquefied natural gas, and the prospect of a spike in demand there is already awakening the LNG market from its recession-induced slumber. Extra shipments of LNG are making their way to the country—and Russia has promised it would ship more natural gas to Europe through pipelines, freeing more LNG to travel by ship to Japan.

The crisis could result in a tightening of the global market for LNG starting in 2012, according to energy consultancy IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell PLC and other major Western energy companies that have placed big bets on gas because they were locked out of many oil opportunities in recent years will benefit.

That will come at the expense of nuclear power. Japan's crisis has dashed immediate hopes for a new dawn. Now Europe, China and the U.S. are closely looking at their nuclear programs, and investors are pulling back from utilities that rely heavily on nuclear.

Although the crisis could haunt nuclear power for a decade, in the long term its low greenhouse-gas emissions will ensure it a role in the global energy system, says Bill Colton, Exxon's vice president for corporate strategic planning. "I don't think society is going to walk away from it so easily," he said.

Japan will also consume more oil as it fires up its diesel-powered electricity generators, but the increase will be largely offset by reduced economic activity, and so crude-oil prices won't see much of a boost. The refining industry, however, will get a jolt from higher oil-product demand from Japan, as more than one quarter of the country's refining capacity isn't working.

—Ángel González

Finance

Global banks are likely to suffer losses on loans backed by devastated Japanese properties, and the stock-market selloffs and exchange-rate volatility that followed the disaster could hurt their trading results. But they also stand to profit from a rebuilding effort sure to require lots of credit.

Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup Inc., which has 5,000 employees in the country, the largest presence of any U.S. bank, predicts "a massive reconstruction boom in real estate and infrastructure."

Insurance companies will help refinance that effort by picking up an estimated 10% to 20% of a property-damage tab that could top $200 billion, but their rates could rise as the disaster hammers home the importance of property coverage.

The industry's total liability for residential earthquake damage is capped at $7 billion; a government pool absorbs other losses.

No such backstop exists for commercial-property damage, and the cost of business interruption is another wild card, according to Moody's Investors Service. Most U.S. manufacturers, for example, have some form of business-interruption coverage, which could leave insurers on the hook for supply-chain disruptions caused by the quake.

Insurer American International Group and reinsurer Swiss Re have put their losses from the disaster at $700 million and $1.2 billion, respectively. Moody's says global reinsurers, such as Lloyd's of London, which help insurance firms limit their risks, will absorb a "meaningful portion of losses."

Shares of Japan's three largest property-casualty insurers, Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. and the parents of Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance and Sompo Japan Insurance all fell by 20% or more from their February peaks in the first 10 days after the disaster. The stocks have rebounded slightly in the past few days amid reports of progress in cooling the crippled Japanese nuclear plant.

Three U.S. life insurers with significant Japanese exposure—Aflac Inc., Prudential Financial Inc. and MetLife Inc.—face "moderate" losses from the disaster's thousands of fatalities, according to Moody's. They may also face a loss of premium income if policy holders in the affected area find other bills more pressing.

—Randall Smith

Travel

U.S. airline executives expect the recent slowdown in Japanese travel will be temporary, with demand picking up later this year as the nation's rebuilding efforts take off.

But hotels operated by global chains in the Pacific region could suffer from fewer Japanese tourists traveling overseas.

Delta Air Lines Inc., the largest U.S.-based carrier in Japan, estimates temporary pullback on daily flights to Tokyo's Haneda Airport and elsewhere in the country will lop $250 million to $400 million from 2011 earnings, Delta President Ed Bastian said Tuesday at an investor conference.

United Continental Holdings Inc. and AMR Corp.'s American Airlines have yet to suspend flights to Japan. "Of course, no one knows what the future holds," said AMR Treasurer Beverly Goulet on Tuesday. AMR still plans next week to launch a joint venture with Japan Airlines Corp.

Delta and carriers in Singapore, Australia, China and South Korea have said they are paring back Japan flights. Delta aims to reduce capacity there by 15% to 20% through May.

Hotels near the hardest-hit areas in northern Japan have closed because of problems with logistics or infrastructure. Several hotel chain companies, such as Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts, Hilton Worldwide and Starwood Hotels and Resorts, report occupancy is far lower than normal in Tokyo, but higher than normal in some other parts of Japan.

Some hotels, such as the Radisson near the Narita Airport, are not taking new bookings through the end of this month (March) due to the uncertainty in fuel, food and other resources.

Hotel executives said it's too soon to tell the longer-lasting impacts. "The strong likelihood is there will be a reduction in outbound travel," said Simon Barlow, president of Carlson Hotels Asia Pacific, which owns the Radisson brand.

Outbound travel from Japan could sink by 10% this year, in line with the declines observed after the Kobe earthquake in 1995, according to a recent report from Tourism Economics, a consulting firm. Arrivals from Japan to Hawaii since the quake are down 25% over the same time last year, but it is unclear how long that pattern will continue.

(The wall street journal)
by nyfiken | 2011-04-08 09:59